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A revival of the accord is expected to lead to a sharper drop in oil prices, analysts said.
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Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 71 cents, or 0.7%, to $95.94 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate declined by a similar amount to $90.07 a barrel.
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Analysts at ANZ bank said:
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n
The spectre of a US-Iran nuclear deal continues to hover over the market.
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Last night, the EU tabled a “final” text to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which needs to be approved by Washington and Tehran. A senior EU official said a final decision on the proposal was expected within “very, very few weeks”.
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Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said:
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While the details around the timing of of the resumption of Iran’s oil exports remain uncertain even if the accord is revived, there is certainly scope for Iran to increase oil exports relatively quickly.
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He said Iran could raise its oil exports by 1m to 1.5m barrels per day, or up to 1.5% of global supply, in six months.
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A revival of the 2015 nuclear accord will likely see oil prices fall sharply given that markets probably don’t believe a deal will be reached.
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The oil market has been knocked by global recession fears, with Brent crude suffering its biggest weekly drop since April 2020 last week. However, since then prices have been underpinned somewhat by stronger-than-expected export figures from China and the surprise pick-up in US jobs growth in July, which suggest demand for crude could hold up.
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,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”16.49 AEST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1660028777000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”17.06 AEST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1660028777000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”17.06 AEST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”17.06″,”title “:”Les prix du pétrole chutent en raison d’une reprise potentielle des exportations iraniennes”,”contributeurs”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mar 9 août 2022 17h06 AEST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”Première publication le mar 9 août 2022 16h46 AEST”},{“id”:”62f164378f08b2ca242c7a19″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.
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The European Union’s gas emergency plan has come into effect today, asking countries to voluntarily cut gas use by 15% this winter to prepare for a potential full Russian cut-off. The reductions could become mandatory in a supply emergency, albeit with opt-outs for some countries and industries.
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The head of Germany’s network regulator welcomed the plan, and said it could stabilise or even lower gas prices. Klaus Müller, head of Bundesnetzagentur, told the ZDF broadcaster:
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n
If all countries in Europe save gas, this can stabilise the price so to speak, maybe even reduce it, and contribute to making sure that there is enough gas supply for us to make it through the autumn and winter.
n
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Retail sales in the UK rose 2.3% last month, as the heatwave boosted sales of summer clothing, picnic treats and electric fans despite the intensifying cost of living crisis.
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Experts said it could be the “lull before the storm,” with the Bank of England predicting a recession lasting longer than a year and inflation rising above 13.3%.
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The latest monthly survey from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed a 2.3% sales rise in July compared with a 6.4% rise the year before. But the sales growth was largely caused by inflation, which is running at a 40-year high of 9.4%, and masked a larger drop in the number of items sold.
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Retail sales have held up as people have been splashing out on summer clothes amid warm weather as well as wedding outfits, enjoying the opportunity to go on holiday and to family events that had been delayed by the pandemic.
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However, Paul Martin, the UK head of retail at the advisory firm KPMG, said:
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n
The summer could be the lull before the storm with conditions set to get tougher as consumers arrive back from summer breaks to holiday credit card bills, another energy price hike and rising interest rates. With stronger cost of living headwinds on the horizon, consumers will have to prioritise essentials, and discretionary product spending will come under pressure.
n
Consumers are determined to enjoy delayed holidays and an unrestricted summer. Pent up demand, especially for new clothes, has so far been at significant enough levels to keep the overall retail sector in relatively good health.
n
“,”elementId”:”bd7408f7-e04f-465c-b035-3b0a948ca61d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/09/july-could-be-lull-before-the-storm-for-retailers-and-consumers”,”text”:”July could be ‘lull before the storm’ for retailers and consumers “,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”b4bca9bf-5b1c-48a7-8019-675836ad40b1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The boss of John Lewis said this morning that she has “never seen anything quite like” the country’s current economic situation throughout her entire career.
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Dame Sharon White, the chair of the department store chain and a former Treasury civil servant, urged the next government to encourage people in their 50s to return to work after retiring during the pandemic.
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She told BBC radio 4’s Today programme that with “one million fewer people in work or looking for work,” higher inflation was inevitable.
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n
Regardless of what has happened coming out of Covid, if the labour market is that tight, if we continue to have far fewer people in work, looking for work – you’ve inevitably got more inflation and more wage inflation.
n
I guess I would encourage…any government to really think much more about how to we encourage more people back into work.
n
There’s not a business in the UK that’s not finding it very difficult to recruit at the moment because there are so many more jobs and so far fewer people looking for work. It’s a big issue.
n
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The Agenda
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- n
- 11am BST: Ireland Industrial production for June
- 12pm BST: Mexico inflation for July (forecast: 8.13%)
- 1pm BST: Brazil inflation for July (forecast: 10.1%)
n
n
n
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Les évènements clés
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A revival of the accord is expected to lead to a sharper drop in oil prices, analysts said.
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Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 71 cents, or 0.7%, to $95.94 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate declined by a similar amount to $90.07 a barrel.
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Analysts at ANZ bank said:
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n
The spectre of a US-Iran nuclear deal continues to hover over the market.
n
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Last night, the EU tabled a “final” text to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which needs to be approved by Washington and Tehran. A senior EU official said a final decision on the proposal was expected within “very, very few weeks”.
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Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said:
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n
While the details around the timing of of the resumption of Iran’s oil exports remain uncertain even if the accord is revived, there is certainly scope for Iran to increase oil exports relatively quickly.
n
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He said Iran could raise its oil exports by 1m to 1.5m barrels per day, or up to 1.5% of global supply, in six months.
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n
A revival of the 2015 nuclear accord will likely see oil prices fall sharply given that markets probably don’t believe a deal will be reached.
n
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The oil market has been knocked by global recession fears, with Brent crude suffering its biggest weekly drop since April 2020 last week. However, since then prices have been underpinned somewhat by stronger-than-expected export figures from China and the surprise pick-up in US jobs growth in July, which suggest demand for crude could hold up.
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,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”16.49 AEST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1660028777000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”17.06 AEST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1660028777000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”17.06 AEST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”17.06″,”title “:”Les prix du pétrole chutent en raison d’une reprise potentielle des exportations iraniennes”,”contributeurs”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mar 9 août 2022 17h06 AEST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”Première publication le mar 9 août 2022 16h46 AEST”},{“id”:”62f164378f08b2ca242c7a19″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.
“,”elementId”:”1aafb6c1-cf4e-44ba-9a0b-a2680444e6ea”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The European Union’s gas emergency plan has come into effect today, asking countries to voluntarily cut gas use by 15% this winter to prepare for a potential full Russian cut-off. The reductions could become mandatory in a supply emergency, albeit with opt-outs for some countries and industries.
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The head of Germany’s network regulator welcomed the plan, and said it could stabilise or even lower gas prices. Klaus Müller, head of Bundesnetzagentur, told the ZDF broadcaster:
“,”elementId”:”926f648b-deb8-4373-a972-3d64f8262d5f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”
n
If all countries in Europe save gas, this can stabilise the price so to speak, maybe even reduce it, and contribute to making sure that there is enough gas supply for us to make it through the autumn and winter.
n
“,”elementId”:”788d4d05-3262-4500-9a9b-1824caf0db6a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Retail sales in the UK rose 2.3% last month, as the heatwave boosted sales of summer clothing, picnic treats and electric fans despite the intensifying cost of living crisis.
“,”elementId”:”b99288e7-7b1f-4e4c-baa5-9d3fddb3fe6a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Experts said it could be the “lull before the storm,” with the Bank of England predicting a recession lasting longer than a year and inflation rising above 13.3%.
“,”elementId”:”051a9f75-33c9-410d-b173-26952d1ca2f8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The latest monthly survey from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed a 2.3% sales rise in July compared with a 6.4% rise the year before. But the sales growth was largely caused by inflation, which is running at a 40-year high of 9.4%, and masked a larger drop in the number of items sold.
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Retail sales have held up as people have been splashing out on summer clothes amid warm weather as well as wedding outfits, enjoying the opportunity to go on holiday and to family events that had been delayed by the pandemic.
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However, Paul Martin, the UK head of retail at the advisory firm KPMG, said:
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n
The summer could be the lull before the storm with conditions set to get tougher as consumers arrive back from summer breaks to holiday credit card bills, another energy price hike and rising interest rates. With stronger cost of living headwinds on the horizon, consumers will have to prioritise essentials, and discretionary product spending will come under pressure.
n
Consumers are determined to enjoy delayed holidays and an unrestricted summer. Pent up demand, especially for new clothes, has so far been at significant enough levels to keep the overall retail sector in relatively good health.
n
“,”elementId”:”bd7408f7-e04f-465c-b035-3b0a948ca61d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/09/july-could-be-lull-before-the-storm-for-retailers-and-consumers”,”text”:”July could be ‘lull before the storm’ for retailers and consumers “,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”b4bca9bf-5b1c-48a7-8019-675836ad40b1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The boss of John Lewis said this morning that she has “never seen anything quite like” the country’s current economic situation throughout her entire career.
“,”elementId”:”964d9fed-4444-4429-a111-45e73c5a9bd8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Dame Sharon White, the chair of the department store chain and a former Treasury civil servant, urged the next government to encourage people in their 50s to return to work after retiring during the pandemic.
“,”elementId”:”6e7cd971-1ec7-47ec-b321-385fc202c448″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
She told BBC radio 4’s Today programme that with “one million fewer people in work or looking for work,” higher inflation was inevitable.
“,”elementId”:”b0998dc9-ae84-4f6f-b1f9-893f04e9ec57″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”
n
Regardless of what has happened coming out of Covid, if the labour market is that tight, if we continue to have far fewer people in work, looking for work – you’ve inevitably got more inflation and more wage inflation.
n
I guess I would encourage…any government to really think much more about how to we encourage more people back into work.
n
There’s not a business in the UK that’s not finding it very difficult to recruit at the moment because there are so many more jobs and so far fewer people looking for work. It’s a big issue.
n
“,”elementId”:”e395f05e-6431-4413-a549-97ce7bfe3d6d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The Agenda
“,”elementId”:”c6ff236d-ad09-41f1-9451-1e8122dc49fb”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
- n
- 11am BST: Ireland Industrial production for June
- 12pm BST: Mexico inflation for July (forecast: 8.13%)
- 1pm BST: Brazil inflation for July (forecast: 10.1%)
n
n
n
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Filtres BÊTA
Les prix du pétrole chutent sur la reprise potentielle des exportations iraniennes
Les prix du pétrole brut ont chuté, car les commerçants tiennent compte de la possibilité que l’Iran puisse augmenter l’offre, alors que des pourparlers de dernière minute pour relancer l’accord nucléaire iranien de 2015 sont en cours, ce qui permettrait au pays de reprendre ses exportations de brut.
Une relance de l’accord devrait entraîner une baisse plus prononcée des prix du pétrole, ont déclaré des analystes.
Le brut Brent, la référence mondiale, a chuté de 71 cents, ou 0,7 %, à 95,94 $ le baril, tandis que le West Texas Intermediate américain a baissé d’un montant similaire à 90,07 $ le baril.
Les analystes de la banque ANZ ont déclaré :
Le spectre d’un accord nucléaire américano-iranien continue de planer sur le marché.
Hier soir, l’UE a déposé un texte “final” pour relancer l’accord nucléaire iranien de 2015, qui doit être approuvé par Washington et Téhéran. Un haut responsable de l’UE a déclaré qu’une décision finale sur la proposition était attendue dans “très, très peu de semaines”.
Vivek Dhar, analyste de la Banque du Commonwealth, a déclaré :
Bien que les détails concernant le moment de la reprise des exportations de pétrole de l’Iran restent incertains même si l’accord est relancé, il est certainement possible que l’Iran augmente ses exportations de pétrole relativement rapidement.
Il a déclaré que l’Iran pourrait augmenter ses exportations de pétrole de 1 million à 1,5 million de barils par jour, soit jusqu’à 1,5 % de l’offre mondiale, en six mois.
Une relance de l’accord nucléaire de 2015 entraînera probablement une forte chute des prix du pétrole étant donné que les marchés ne croient probablement pas qu’un accord sera conclu.
Le marché pétrolier a été frappé par les craintes de récession mondiale, le brut Brent ayant subi sa plus forte baisse hebdomadaire depuis avril 2020 la semaine dernière. Cependant, depuis lors, les prix ont été quelque peu soutenus par des chiffres d’exportation plus élevés que prévu en provenance de Chine et par la reprise surprise de la croissance de l’emploi aux États-Unis en juillet, ce qui suggère que la demande de brut pourrait se maintenir.
Introduction : le plan d’urgence pour le gaz de l’UE entre en vigueur ; Les ventes au détail au Royaume-Uni augmentent dans une «accalmie avant la tempête»
Bonjour et bienvenue dans notre couverture en direct et continue des affaires, de l’économie et des marchés financiers.
Le plan d’urgence pour le gaz de l’Union européenne est entré en vigueur aujourd’hui, demandant aux pays de réduire volontairement leur consommation de gaz de 15 % cet hiver pour se préparer à une éventuelle coupure complète de la Russie. Les réductions pourraient devenir obligatoires en cas d’urgence de l’approvisionnement, mais avec des dérogations pour certains pays et industries.
Le chef du régulateur du réseau allemand a salué le plan et a déclaré qu’il pourrait stabiliser ou même faire baisser les prix du gaz. Klaus Müller, chef de la Bundesnetzagentur, a déclaré au diffuseur ZDF :
Si tous les pays d’Europe économisent du gaz, cela peut stabiliser le prix pour ainsi dire, peut-être même le réduire, et contribuer à garantir que l’approvisionnement en gaz est suffisant pour que nous puissions passer l’automne et l’hiver.
Les ventes au détail au Royaume-Uni ont augmenté de 2,3% le mois dernier, la canicule ayant stimulé les ventes de vêtements d’été, de friandises pour pique-nique et de ventilateurs électriques malgré l’intensification de la crise du coût de la vie.
Les experts ont déclaré que cela pourrait être «l’accalmie avant la tempête», la Banque d’Angleterre prédisant une récession de plus d’un an et une inflation dépassant 13,3%.
La dernière enquête mensuelle du British Retail Consortium (BRC) a montré une hausse des ventes de 2,3% en juillet contre une hausse de 6,4% l’année précédente. Mais la croissance des ventes a été en grande partie causée par l’inflation, qui atteint un sommet de 40 ans de 9,4 %, et a masqué une baisse plus importante du nombre d’articles vendus.
Les ventes au détail se sont maintenues alors que les gens ont éclaboussé les vêtements d’été par temps chaud ainsi que les tenues de mariage, profitant de l’occasion de partir en vacances et d’événements familiaux qui avaient été retardés par la pandémie.
Cependant, Paul Martin, responsable britannique du commerce de détail au cabinet de conseil KPMG, a déclaré :
L’été pourrait être l’accalmie avant la tempête avec des conditions qui devraient se durcir à mesure que les consommateurs reviennent des vacances d’été pour les factures de carte de crédit des vacances, une nouvelle hausse des prix de l’énergie et une hausse des taux d’intérêt. Avec des vents contraires plus forts sur le coût de la vie à l’horizon, les consommateurs devront donner la priorité à l’essentiel, et les dépenses discrétionnaires en produits seront sous pression.
Les consommateurs sont déterminés à profiter de vacances retardées et d’un été sans restriction. La demande refoulée, en particulier pour les vêtements neufs, a jusqu’à présent été à des niveaux suffisamment importants pour maintenir l’ensemble du secteur de la vente au détail en relativement bonne santé.
La patronne de John Lewis a déclaré ce matin qu’elle n’avait « jamais rien vu de semblable » à la situation économique actuelle du pays tout au long de sa carrière.
Dame Sharon White, présidente de la chaîne de grands magasins et ancienne fonctionnaire du Trésor, a exhorté le prochain gouvernement à encourager les personnes dans la cinquantaine à retourner au travail après avoir pris leur retraite pendant la pandémie.
Elle a déclaré à l’émission Today de la BBC radio 4 qu’avec “un million de personnes en moins au travail ou à la recherche d’un emploi”, une inflation plus élevée était inévitable.
Indépendamment de ce qui s’est passé à la suite de Covid, si le marché du travail est si serré, si nous continuons à avoir beaucoup moins de personnes au travail, à la recherche d’un emploi – vous avez inévitablement plus d’inflation et plus d’inflation salariale.
J’imagine que j’encouragerais… n’importe quel gouvernement à vraiment réfléchir davantage à la façon d’encourager plus de gens à retourner au travail.
Il n’y a pas une entreprise au Royaume-Uni qui n’ait pas beaucoup de mal à recruter en ce moment parce qu’il y a tellement plus d’emplois et tellement moins de personnes à la recherche d’un emploi. C’est un gros problème.
L’agenda
- 11h BST: production industrielle de l’Irlande pour juin
- 12h BST: Inflation mexicaine pour juillet (prévision: 8,13%)
- 13h BST: Inflation au Brésil pour juillet (prévision: 10,1%)
